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Bitcoin on-chain transaction data shows "uncertain" conditions prevailing, research says, warning that Q2 is not likely to match BTC price gains from earlier in 2023. Bitcoin (BTC) traders are displaying behavior similar to the 2022 bear market bottom as “uncertain” sentiment rules, new research argues. In one of its Quicktake market updates on Oct. 9, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant examined a major drop in realized capitalization of the most active part of the BTC supply . One-month-old BTC supply realized cap comes full circle Bitcoin’s more speculative investor cohorts continue to come in for scrutiny this year as BTC price action experiences a variety of diverging environments. Spot price is currently circling the aggregate cost basis for so-called short-term holders (STHS), defined as entities hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or less. Now, CryptoQuant reveals that the realized capitalization, or cap, of coins which last moved between 24 hours and o...

Macro factors will play a dominant role in sparking the next crypto bull market, which should start in Q2 2024, according to Raoul Pal. The next crypto bull market is likely to kick in in Q2 next year when the Bitcoin halving is set to take place, says macro investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal. He is convinced that, despite the hype surrounding the halving, macro factors will play the leading role in sparking the next uptrend.  According to Pal, the Bitcoin halving cycle coincides with the macro cycle, which means every halving so far has taken place in a similar macroeconomic environment: monetary expansion and low interest rates. “Macro is actually the dominant factor and the halving is a false narrative, but it doesn't matter because it still works,” Pal said in an interview with Cointelegraph. Among the main catalysts favoring crypto next year are central banks cutting interest rates and potential fiscal stimulus that could precede the U.S. presidential election.  Regar...

This week, The Market Report discusses why $22,000 is the next logical step for Bitcoin and why BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes claims the bull market started back in March. In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s The Market Report , analyst Marcel Pechman explores the drivers that point to Bitcoin heading to $22,000, with investor sentiment worsening after Grayscale Investment’s much-hyped legal victory against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Aug. 29 and its postponement of multiple spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund applications. According to Pechman, on the side of the bears are multiple lawsuits from the SEC against Binance and Coinbase, including a potential indictment from the U.S. Department of Justice regarding money laundering and facilitating trades from Russian entities. But, more importantly, U.S. inflation has come down to 3.2%, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is draining liquidity from the markets. Pechman also analyzes BitMEX founder Arth...

BTC price performance disappoints as Bitcoin comes full circle to finish a grim August for bulls. Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for a long-term support retest, data suggests, after BTC price action fell into the August monthly close. BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView BTC price: Roads point to $23,000 Reversing gains seen last week, BTC/USD is back below $26,000 as of Sep. 1, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows. Market participants had seen cause for bullishness into the close, with Bitcoin holding a key long-term trendline and preserving $27,000. A decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to delay a slew of Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications forced a rethink, with Bitcoin shedding $1,000 over just two hourly candles. Now, observers are concerned that even current levels may fail to hold the market up for long. “On-chain data suggests that $BTC lacks strong support below the $25,400 mark,” popular trader Ali...

BTC price is right on track when it comes to cycle top and bottom timing, Bitcoin bull Pantera says. Bitcoin (BTC) is due to hit nearly $150,000 during its next four-year halving cycle, Pantera Capital believes. In its latest “Blockchain Letter,” released on Aug. 22, executives at the crypto asset manager doubled down on their bullish BTC price forecasts for 2024 and beyond. Halving data reinforces November 2022 BTC price bottom Bitcoin price performance depends heavily on its halving cycles, Pantera Capital argues, and with the next due within the coming twelve months, the firm is betting that historical trends will continue. BTC/USD, it notes, tends to put in a cycle bottom and top roughly equal lengths of time from each block subsidy halving , which cuts the number of Bitcoin paid to miners per block by 50%. “Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward,” it wrote. “The post-halving rallies have...

Bitcoin capitulation action could send BTC price back to an area double the 2018 bear market bottom, says Decentrader’s Filbfilb. Bitcoin (BTC) still risks a drop to below $7,000 in this bear market , the latest worst -case scenario prediction warns. In its latest livestream broadcasted on Nov. 24, trading platform DecenTrader revealed targets for a BTC price bottom . Analyst flags “oldschool, rock-hard support” for Bitc The most recent in a series of BTC/USD forecasts, Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb mapped out a potential sub-$10,000 dip on the cards for the pair. “In my worst case scenario, I think that would be probably where we end up, like oldschool, rock-hard support,” he said about a bidding zone around $6,500. This is where buyers would “probably start refilling their bags,” he added, noting that that level was approximately double the 2018 bear market and March 2020 COVID-19 crash lows. While “unlikely” under current circumstances, Filbfilb nonetheless argued that more sign...